EB-5 Data Party with Lee Li & Friends | Part 5 of 5
Every serious attempt to project EB-5 visa availability depends on knowing how many visa numbers are being used, and by whom. For years that information was reasonably complete. A single category of data has now gone dark, and its absence is quietly undermining the industry’s ability to forecast retrogression with any precision.
That category is adjustment of status, or AOS: the pathway used by investors already living in the United States who file to adjust to permanent resident status without leaving the country. At the 2026 IIUSA EB-5 Industry Forum, IIUSA’s Lee Li and former U.S. Department of State visa chief Charlie Oppenheim examined a growing gap in the published data. AOS usage has surged since the Reform and Integrity Act (RIA), yet almost no reliable figures on that usage are published. The result is a blind spot at the center of every visa projection.
What the Government Publishes, and What It Doesn’t
The State Department publishes monthly data on EB-5 visas issued through consular processing, the pathway for investors completing the process at a U.S. consulate abroad. In fiscal year 2025, that figure came to more than 10,750 visas issued worldwide, and Lee Li uses it to track month-to-month issuance trends.
The problem is what sits alongside it. No corresponding figure for AOS usage is published on any regular basis. USCIS holds the data, since it adjudicates AOS applications, but does not release it in a usable, timely form. Charlie was blunt: he described the government’s data publication as woefully incomplete and said there is no legitimate reason interested parties should have to file Freedom of Information Act requests to obtain figures that ought to be readily available. Given that the government already holds the data, he called the failure to provide that transparency deplorable.
The consequence is that anyone modeling EB-5 visa demand is working with one half of the ledger. Consular numbers are visible; AOS numbers are inferred, estimated, or simply missing.
From Under 5% to Perhaps 40% or More
The gap would matter less if AOS were a small slice of overall usage. It is not, and it is growing fast.
Before the RIA, AOS cases represented probably less than 5% of total EB-5 number use, according to Charlie. The introduction of concurrent filing changed that fundamentally. Concurrent filing allows an investor already in the United States to file the I-526E petition and the adjustment of status application at the same time, rather than waiting for petition approval first. It has become a powerful driver of new filings, particularly among investors on temporary visas who want the work authorization and travel benefits that come with a pending AOS application.
Charlie’s current estimate is striking: AOS could easily account for 40% or more of total number use today. That is a nearly tenfold increase in relative share within a few years, meaning a substantial portion of all EB-5 visa consumption now happens through the one channel no one can see clearly.
There is indirect evidence the estimate is sound. Lee Li pointed to a signal in the unreserved category data for fiscal year 2025: published figures showed only about 84% of available unreserved visas issued through consular processing, yet the State Department separately confirmed that 100% of available unreserved visas were used. The missing 16% was consumed through AOS. If AOS is filling that kind of gap in a single category, its total contribution across all categories is considerable.
Why the Blind Spot Distorts Retrogression Forecasting
Retrogression happens when demand for visa numbers in a category exceeds the annual supply, forcing the government to impose a final action date. Forecasting when that will happen requires an accurate count of how quickly numbers are being consumed. If 40% of consumption is invisible, the forecast rests on guesswork.
The distortion is not evenly distributed. Christine Chen, COO of CanAm Enterprises, noted that concurrent filing now accounts for roughly half of the China filing market among CanAm’s investor base, with an even higher share in India. Vietnam and South Korea skew toward consular processing. The countries facing the greatest retrogression pressure, China and India, are precisely the ones whose true visa consumption is least visible.
For an investor from India or China trying to gauge how long a green card will take, this is not abstract. The projections that inform expectations, whether from attorneys, agents, or regional centers, are built on incomplete inputs. A model that undercounts AOS will consistently underestimate how fast a category is filling, and therefore how soon a date may appear.
Why AOS May Also Be Protecting the Program
There is a constructive side to the AOS surge that deserves equal attention. Unused visa numbers are the enemy of a healthy immigrant visa category: when numbers go unused in a fiscal year, they can be lost, and persistent underuse invites scrutiny of whether an allocation is justified.
AOS demand has become an important safeguard against that outcome. Lee Li noted that in fiscal year 2024, consular processing accounted for fewer than a hundred issued visas in a given reserved subcategory, while AOS accounted for several hundred more. Without the AOS volume, those numbers might have gone unused. As he put it, AOS could be the key to making sure the visas are fully used and therefore not wasted.
This is the paradox of the blind spot. The same channel that makes forecasting harder is also helping the program absorb its full visa allocation. The problem is not that AOS usage is high. The problem is that it is invisible.
What Would Fix It, and What Investors Should Do Now
The remedy is straightforward in principle. The annual visa report showing number usage by AOS versus consular processing is exactly the document the industry is missing, and it is data the government already compiles. Consistent, timely publication would close most of the gap. Until then, organizations like IIUSA are left assembling the picture through FOIA requests and member data samples, a slower and less complete substitute for official transparency.
For investors and their advisors, a few practical points follow from all of this:
- Treat retrogression projections as directional, not precise. Any timeline that cannot account for AOS usage is working from partial information.
- Recognize that China and India face the largest hidden demand. Investors from these markets should assume real consumption is running ahead of published consular figures.
- Follow the organizations doing the counting. IIUSA and immigration counsel tracking FOIA-obtained data offer a fuller view than the official monthly figures alone.
The AOS blind spot is a reminder that in EB-5, the quality of a decision depends on the quality of the data behind it. Until the government publishes what it already holds, the most valuable thing an investor can do is understand where the numbers end and the estimates begin.
About This Panel
This post is based on a session from the 2026 IIUSA EB-5 Industry Forum, presented by Lee Li, Christine Chen, and Charlie Oppenheim. CanAm thanks IIUSA for its continued work gathering and publishing EB-5 data that benefits the entire industry, including the FOIA-based analysis that helps fill gaps in official reporting. The full panel recording is available to IIUSA members through the IIUSA access library.
Learn More About EB-5 with CanAm
CanAm Enterprises has helped investors from more than 90 countries make informed EB-5 decisions over 30+ years, with $4B+ in EB-5 capital raised, $2.5B+ repaid, and 9,300+ permanent green cards issued across 75+ funded projects. Our team helps investors understand not just the projects, but the data and timing considerations that shape a sound decision.
Contact us at info@canamenterprises.com or +1 (212) 668-0690.
About the Panelists
Christine Chen, Chief Operating Officer, CanAm Enterprises
Christine Chen serves as COO of CanAm Enterprises, one of the longest-operating regional centers in the EB-5 industry. She oversees operations and investor relations across a portfolio that has raised over $4B in EB-5 capital and facilitated more than 17,100 conditional green cards.
Charlie Oppenheim, Consultant, WR Immigration
Charlie Oppenheim spent 23 years as Chief of Immigrant Visa Control at the U.S. Department of State, where he oversaw the Visa Bulletin and movement of final action dates across all immigrant visa categories. He now consults at WR Immigration, advising on visa availability and priority date strategy.
Lee Li, Director of Policy Research & Data Analytics, IIUSA
Lee Li is the Director of Policy Research & Data Analytics at IIUSA, where he leads the organization’s data collection and analysis efforts. His research provides the EB-5 industry with critical insights into filing trends, processing times, and program performance.
