This article is the first in a five-part series that breaks down CanAm’s recent webinar, Navigating EB-5 Visa Backlogs in 2025. The discussion brought together three of the EB-5 industry’s most trusted voices—Suzanne Lazicki, EB-5 analyst and author of LucidText;Joey Barnett, Partner at WR Immigration; and Nicolai Hinrichsen, Partner at Miller Mayer LLP—for a candid look at today’s EB-5 environment.
Over the next several weeks, we’ll publish a series of focused recaps, each spotlighting a different theme:
- The State of EB-5 in 2025: Demand, Backlogs, and What’s at Stake
- Data Deep Dive: Understanding Backlogs and Visa Allocation
- Concurrent Filing & the 2026 Grandfathering Deadline
- Choosing the Right EB-5 Project – Rural vs. High-Unemployment
- Retrogression, Investor Expectations, and Long-Term Strategy
The goal of this series is simple: to give investors, families, and advisors a clear, data-driven understanding of where the EB-5 program stands today, what challenges lie ahead, and how to plan strategically.
EB-5 Demand Is Surging
Since the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act (RIA) was passed in 2022, investor demand has skyrocketed. More than 10,000 I-526E petitions have already been filed under the new law, making EB-5 one of the most popular residency-by-investment programs globally.
At the webinar’s opening,Min Wu, Head of Sales at CanAm, emphasized both the success and the challenges of this momentum:
“The EB-5 program is working well for families, but the landscape has become increasingly complex.” – Min Wu
The complexity stems not only from rising demand but also from looming deadlines and structural limits on visa availability.
What “Backlog” Really Means
Suzanne Lazicki, who authored CanAm’s newly commissioned white paper on visa availability, explained why backlogs are now unavoidable.
At its simplest, a backlog occurs when more people are in line for EB-5 visas than there are visas available. Each year, only about 10,000 EB-5 visas can be issued worldwide. Today, more than 60,000 people—investors and their family members—are already in the pipeline.
“The most important thing to know is that there are a lot of people in process to get an EB-5 visa, and when there are a lot of people in process and a limited number of visas, somebody is going to be waiting.” – Suzanne Lazicki
The critical question for families is not whether they will wait, but who will wait—and for how long.
Visible vs. Invisible Backlogs
Understanding the backlog requires looking at both the visible and invisible queues.
- The Visa Bulletin only tracks those who have cleared I-526 processing and are waiting for a visa—this is the visible backlog.
- But thousands more remain in line at the I-526 stage. This “invisible backlog” means published wait times often underestimate the real picture.
In other words, the line is longer than it appears.
Why Nationality Matters
Another key factor in wait times is the 7% per-country visa cap. This rule ensures no single country can consume more than 7% of the annual EB-5 allocation, but it also creates very different realities depending on where an investor was born.
- China and India – Facing inevitable retrogression, with multi-year delays expected.
- Rest of World (ROW) – May avoid retrogression, especially by using flexibility between reserved and unreserved categories.
Lazicki made it clear:
“If you’re from China or India, retrogression coming up against a Visa Bulletin cutoff date is inevitable.” – Suzanne Lazicki
The 2026 Grandfathering Deadline
Overlaying the backlog issue is the September 30, 2026 grandfathering deadline. Any EB-5 investor who files before that date is protected—even if the Regional Center Program lapses after 2027, their petitions will still be adjudicated under current law.
While this safeguard doesn’t shorten the wait for a green card, it ensures eligibility. That’s why many in the industry expect a surge of filings in the next 12–18 months.
Why This Matters for Investors Today
The message from our expert panel is clear: EB-5 remains one of the strongest immigration options available, but investors must enter with realistic expectations and a long-term view.
- Demand is at record levels, with 10,000+ petitions filed since 2022.
- More than 60,000 applicants are already in line, making backlogs inevitable.
- Wait times differ sharply by nationality due to per-country caps.
- The 2026 deadline is a critical marker, expected to drive even more demand.
Download the Full White Paper
For a deeper dive into visa availability, backlog projections, and strategic investor considerations, CanAm commissioned EB-5 analyst Suzanne Lazicki to author a comprehensive white paper:
Download the White Paper: Visa Availability and Allocation – Q&A for 2025
This resource expands on the data and themes discussed in the webinar and provides critical context for families evaluating the EB-5 program today.
What’s Next
In our next article, we’ll go deeper into the data: how EB-5 visas are allocated, why some categories face longer waits than others, and what the “ships and funnels” analogy reveals about the visa process.
For investors considering EB-5 in 2025, one truth stands out: the time to act strategically is now.
