Insights from a recent CanAm webinar featuring Christine Chen, Aaron Grau, and Lee Li
The EB-5 program has undergone one of the most meaningful transformations in its 30-year history since the passage of the Reform and Integrity Act (RIA) in 2022. With new integrity rules, greater transparency requirements, meaningful protections for investors, and visa set-asides designed to rebalance where investment flows, the post-RIA landscape looks very different from the EB-5 of the past decade.
At a recent CanAm webinar, Chief Operating Officer Christine Chen sat down with Aaron Grau, Executive Director of IIUSA, andLee Li, IIUSA’s Director of Policy Research and Data Analytics. Their wide-ranging conversation covered everything from the grandfathering timeline to new filing trends, updated adjudication data, rural investment growth, and what the pathway to a permanent reauthorization could look like.
Below is a comprehensive breakdown of the discussion and what it means for EB-5 investors, stakeholders, and policymakers.
The Grandfathering Deadline: A Fixable Problem?
One of the most closely watched issues post-RIA is the September 30, 2026 grandfathering deadline, which was written into the legislation one year earlier than the program’s current sunset date (September 30, 2027). This discrepancy has raised questions about whether a “lame duck” year might emerge.
Grau confirmed what many in the industry suspected: the mismatched dates were likely an error, not a policy strategy. According to him, reopening the bill at the time would have jeopardized reauthorization—and stakeholders chose to secure the RIA rather than risk further delay.
The good news? There is a viable path to fixing the date. Grau shared that IIUSA has already had productive conversations with congressional offices that understand the issue and are prepared to champion a correction. While any change would represent a substantive amendment rather than a technical fix, Grau is reasonably optimistic this can be addressed during FY2027 appropriations negotiations.
His message to stakeholders:
“Join IIUSA and engage in grassroots advocacy—the industry needs political capital to move even small changes like this.”
Post-RIA Filing Trends: A Historic Surge
If the goal of the RIA was to revive EB-5 demand, the numbers show it is succeeding—dramatically.
Li walked through filing data since the RIA’s passage, noting that:
- FY2025 is on track for a record number of I-526E filings based on the available first three quarters.
- Rural filings are now nearly equal to high unemployment area filings—an unprecedented shift.
- China and India remain the two largest markets, but rural filing rates are disproportionately high for those countries, reflecting demand for faster processing and reserved visas.
According to Li’s analysis of USCIS data and anonymized information contributed by IIUSA members:
More than 13,000 investors have filed post-RIA—representing over $10 billion in EB-5 investment.
96% of those filings have been made through regional centers.
These are extraordinary numbers for a program that only three years ago was in a multi-month lapse.
Adjudication Trends: A New Phase of USCIS Productivity?
One of the biggest surprises in 2025 data has been the dramatic rise in adjudication volume. Li shared that:
- For several quarters post-RIA, USCIS averaged ~400 approvals per quarter.
- In Q3 FY2025, USCIS approved more than 1,000 cases—a major spike.
- FY2025 already has more approvals than all of FY2023 and FY2024 combined.
This acceleration matters. As Christine pointed out, stakeholders were increasingly nervous that slow adjudication would result in wasted set-aside visas, given the “use it or lose it” statutory structure. Faster adjudications ensure that rural and other reserved categories actually work as intended.
Another encouraging finding:
Post-RIA approval rates exceed 90%, a stark contrast to the sub-25% approval rates for standalone (non-regional center) filings.
This massive improvement reflects both higher project quality and the requirement that project applications (Form I-956F) be approved before individual petitions.
What Priority Processing Really Looks Like
Perhaps the most anticipated RIA change was priority processing for rural investors. Until now, no one had reliable data on what “priority” meant in actual timelines.
Thanks to IIUSA’s member-contributed dataset—covering 5,500+ filings, representing over half of all post-RIA cases—we finally have insight.
According to Li:
- Average rural I-526E processing time: 8 months
- Average urban TEA processing time: 11 months (based on a far smaller number of approvals)
- 40% of rural filings have already been approved, compared with only 9% of urban TEA filings
The discrepancy reflects not just faster processing but also the priority with which USCIS appears to be handling rural petitions.
Li cautioned that as more urban TEA approvals come in, the 11-month average is likely to rise, highlighting the meaningful advantage rural investors currently hold.
Rural Investment Explodes—Exactly as Congress Intended
One of the clearest signs that the RIA is working is the unprecedented surge in rural project activity.
From member-contributed data, Li shared a remarkable comparison:
- Pre-RIA rural EB-5 investment (across ~15–20 years): ~$354 million
- Post-RIA rural EB-5 investment (in just 3 years): $5+ billion
This represents a 15x increase and translates into significant economic impact:
- $13.6 billion in total capital stack spending in rural projects
- 133,000+ jobs created in rural communities across the U.S.
Christine observed that in smaller rural economies—with lower populations and wages—the economic multiplier effect is likely even higher than historic EB-5 norms. She emphasized that this kind of data will be vital for EB-5 advocacy and future reauthorization efforts.
Urban High-Unemployment Areas Are Changing Too
The RIA also tightened TEA definitions to eliminate gerrymandering. As a result, TEA projects today are located in smaller, authentically high-unemployment areas, rather than in major cities benefiting from extensive census-tract stitching.
The shift is dramatic:
- Pre-RIA, 27% of EB-5 investment went to New York.
- Post-RIA, that figure has dropped to 5%.
Investment is now spread more evenly across genuinely distressed urban areas nationwide.
Looking Ahead: Pathways to Reauthorization and Permanence
On the question of 2027 reauthorization, Grau was unequivocal: he is bullish.
His reasoning:
- Congress asked for integrity reforms and rural investment—“promises made, promises kept.”
- The Opportunity Zone program was recently made permanent, setting a precedent for economic development programs.
- Bipartisan support for EB-5 remains strong, even if for different reasons.
- IIUSA now has an active Political Action Committee, giving the industry new tools for engagement.
Grau’s message to Congress will be straightforward:
The RIA worked. EB-5 is stronger, cleaner, more transparent, and more impactful than ever. Now it’s time to make it permanent—and expand visa capacity.
Conclusion: EB-5 in the RIA Era Is Working—And Working Well
Christine closed the webinar with a sentiment shared by many veterans of the industry:
“Having been in EB-5 for over 20 years, I can honestly say the program in the RIA era is better than ever.”
The data shows:
- A surge in high-quality filings
- Exceptionally high approval rates
- Real priority processing for rural investors
- Billions in new rural investment
- Meaningful job creation
- Improved geographic equity
- Rising adjudication productivity
Most importantly, the RIA’s goals—integrity, transparency, and economic impact—are being met.
The next chapter for EB-5 will be defined by whether stakeholders can mobilize to support reauthorization, fix the grandfathering date, and push for long-term (or permanent) stability. As all three panelists emphasized, now is the moment to engage.
