Introduction
Peter Calabrese (00:06):
Hello, welcome. My name is Peter Calabrese. I’m CEO of CanAm Investor Services, the FINRA registered broker-dealer affiliate of CanAm Enterprises, one of the largest and certainly most successful regional centers in the history of the EB-5 program. I’m very pleased to be joined again by two gentlemen who need no introduction: Joey Barnett, Partner at WR Immigration, and Charlie Oppenheim, Director of Visa Consulting at WR Immigration and quite literally the foremost authority on U.S. visa availability. Gentlemen, welcome.
Joey Barnett (01:28):
WR Immigration is a full-service U.S. immigration law firm with offices across the United States and in China. We file roughly 15% of EB-5 cases nationally each year. Our EB-5 team is one of the largest in the world, with 15 attorneys who each have more than 10 years of EB-5 experience. We handle everything from source of funds documentation all the way through final permanent green card. After Charlie retired from the Department of State, we were very pleased to bring him on, because his insight into reading the visa bulletin is irreplaceable.
Charlie Oppenheim (02:47):
For 23 years prior to my retirement, I served as Chief of Immigrant Visa Control at the U.S. Department of State. I was responsible for determining the final action dates published in the monthly Visa Bulletin. The decisions I made allowed over 9 million people to immigrate to the United States. I was regularly consulted by the White House and congressional offices, and I testified before immigration subcommittees on two occasions.
What the March Visa Bulletin Showed
Peter Calabrese (03:34):
The March Bulletin arrived later than expected, but it contained meaningful data points. Before we look at the EB-5 categories, there is important context in the broader employment-based movements. Maybe you can help people understand what they are seeing.
Joey Barnett (04:50):
We were all on pins and needles waiting for the March bulletin because a delay sometimes signals that the Department of State is weighing whether to impose a final action date. For EB-5 investors, the critical piece of good news is that the reserved categories remain current for March. That has been true for the past several years, and it means concurrent filing is still available to investors in the United States.
On the broader employment side, several dates advanced rapidly. That movement is largely artificial, reflecting an adjustment for 75 countries that are currently paused under a separate policy change. Once those applicants begin processing again, those dates could hold or retrogress. The visa bulletin footnote itself signals that further adjustments are likely this fiscal year. Do not read the rapid advancement as a permanent trend.
Charlie Oppenheim (08:04):
The bulletin was dated February 4th even though it was released later. The delay was most likely procedural, related to clearance requirements. The fact that no final action date was imposed is positive. The rapid date advances in the employment-based categories were designed to position the State Department to maximize number use if conditions change later in the fiscal year. Specifically, making the EB-2 rest of world application filing date current sets up flexibility for India if unused numbers need to fall across. I would caution against assuming those movements will continue at the same pace.
EB-5 Set-Aside Categories Remain Current
Peter Calabrese (13:17):
The most important point for our audience is that all EB-5 reserved categories remain current: rural, high unemployment area, and infrastructure. The unreserved category for China and India has not moved, but all other nationalities remain current there too. That current status enables concurrent filing, which is enormously valuable. Let’s walk through the demand data.
Joey Barnett (14:54):
The FOIA data available through July 2025 shows that rural petitions are being prioritized over high unemployment area in adjudications at a striking rate, roughly 81% rural versus 16% high unemployment. The infrastructure category shows zero in the FOIA data, but that is a data artifact, not reality. We know infrastructure projects have had adjudications and receipts; USCIS simply did not include them in this query.
Denial rates overall remain very low, which reflects improved source of funds preparation. However, I-956F project denials could begin causing I-526E investor denials, which is why it is critical to invest in projects with an established track record of project approvals. Today, demand significantly exceeds supply in EB-5. Many projects on the market do not yet have their I-956F approved. If you are evaluating a project, make sure the regional center has a demonstrated history of getting approvals.
I would not be surprised if total rural receipts were already above 7,500 and high unemployment above 7,000. Every one of those investors has a priority date earlier than someone filing today. That affects how long the wait will be.
Understanding Visa Demand vs. Supply
Charlie Oppenheim (26:54):
This data is somewhat sobering. During the early years of the RIA, petitions were not being processed quickly, which meant that large numbers of annual visa allocations went unused and were lost to the reserved categories. They fell to the unreserved category instead. This means several thousand reserved applicants who could have been processed will now have to wait through lower annual limits in future years. That is an unfortunate consequence of the bill not providing for carryover of unused reserved numbers within their respective categories.
Joey Barnett (28:38):
EB-5 investors are subject to the same 7% per-country cap as EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 applicants. In practice, that means unused numbers from rest of world applicants can fall to oversubscribed countries like India and China. With the carryover from last year, the additional numbers are not large, roughly 502, so the extent to which India and China benefit beyond that depends on actual rest of world demand, which the current data does not fully capture.
Charlie Oppenheim (29:44):
One important difference between the old EB-5 program and the new RIA program is that under the old program, Chinese applicants were the first movers and used a disproportionate share of numbers early on. Under the reserved categories created by the RIA, all nationalities effectively started at the same time with equal access to program rules. As a result, India and China may end up with final action dates that are relatively close to each other when dates are eventually imposed, unlike the old program where the Chinese backlog grew much faster.
Rural vs. High Unemployment: Which Will See Final Action Dates First?
Charlie Oppenheim (34:12):
Based on the projected 4,262 annual limit for reserved visas, the Immigration and Nationality Act allows only 27% of the annual limit to be used in each of the first three quarters. The State Department would only impose a final action date when actual usage was on track to exceed one of those quarterly thresholds. Based on data through July 2025, there is no indication that any final action date would be needed this fiscal year. The data points in a positive direction, though we are working with incomplete information.
Joey Barnett (35:40):
Earlier this year, we expected to see final action dates by spring 2026, based on the January 2025 bulletin’s warning and the pace of I-526E adjudications we were seeing. That has not materialized, partly because adjustment of status adjudications have been slower than expected. The March bulletin does not include a warning footnote, which generally means we have at least 60 more days before any final action date is possible. That window extends to at least the end of April, covering rural, high unemployment, and infrastructure. But everyone in the EB-5 industry knows final action dates are coming at some point. Do not assume that current will last indefinitely.
Charlie Oppenheim (38:11):
Correct. The State Department should give at least one to two months advance warning via a bulletin footnote before imposing a final action date. At this point, we appear to be clear through April or May. But there is no reason that by fiscal year 2027 they should not be maximizing number use, and maximizing number use eventually requires final action dates.
Peter Calabrese (39:17):
The silver lining in the data lag is that concurrent filing remains available while adjudications work through the backlog. That benefit has real value even as the eventual retrogression becomes more certain.
High Unemployment Area: Final Action Date Outlook
Charlie Oppenheim (40:49):
High unemployment area presents similar dynamics to rural. Based on receipt data, there are fewer applications on file than numbers available for this fiscal year. My earlier assumption was that high unemployment would be the first to see a final action date. Given that USCIS is adjudicating rural cases at a significantly higher rate, I now believe rural will be first, with high unemployment following, potentially months later.
Joey Barnett (41:34):
Even though there are half as many annual visa numbers in high unemployment as in rural, USCIS is simply adjudicating far more rural cases. The RIA deliberately incentivized rural investment, and that intent has been fulfilled. The question for 2027 is whether USCIS continues to prioritize rural adjudications at the same pace.
What Happens to Priority Processing When Final Action Dates Are Imposed?
Peter Calabrese (42:03):
This comes up frequently. People are attracted to rural projects in part because of priority processing. Once a final action date is imposed for rural, does that priority processing benefit disappear?
Joey Barnett (43:18):
Essentially, yes. USCIS can still adjudicate a rural I-526E on a prioritized basis, but once a final action date exists, an investor’s priority date must be current before USCIS can adjudicate the adjustment of status. So even if the I-526E is processed quickly, if the investor’s priority date is behind the final action date, the green card application goes on hold. The investor enters the backlog and waits for the visa bulletin to advance. Just because the category is current today does not guarantee it will be current when the I-526E is approved, even for rural projects. Some wait time for investors filing today should be anticipated.
Charlie Oppenheim (44:30):
One key benefit of concurrent filing is that once someone has filed concurrently, they would likely be able to remain in the United States even if a final action date is imposed later. This is a benefit that has never existed for EB-5 investors in the past, and it is something investors can and should take advantage of while it is available.
Infrastructure Category: An Underappreciated Opportunity
Charlie Oppenheim (50:42):
The FOIA data showed zero for infrastructure, which we know is inaccurate. But the low actual filing numbers mean that investors in infrastructure projects are likely at or near the front of whatever line eventually develops. Infrastructure remains a very attractive option from a visa availability standpoint.
Joey Barnett (50:00):
My takeaway is: control what you can. There is still time to file EB-5, and concurrent filing represents a once-in-a-program opportunity to get your spot in line. For anyone stuck in EB-2 or EB-3 backlogs, EB-5 with concurrent filing is one of the most viable paths to permanent residency available right now. That is why demand from inside the United States is surging.
Closing Thoughts
Peter Calabrese (51:17):
This is excellent practical guidance. Even with the uncertainty around timing, EB-5 in the reserved categories remains likely to be the fastest realistic pathway for many investors seeking long-term permanent residency in the United States. When you compare it to an EB-2 priority date from 2021 that may not be current for decades, the calculus is clear.
Joey Barnett (52:19):
EB-2 2021 priority date? That may not be current in your lifetime. It’s not a removed path, but it is not a realistic near-term expectation.
Peter Calabrese (52:42):
CanAm has been operating in immigration-linked business investments for over 40 years, and we are proud to partner with experts like Joey and Charlie who bring this level of clarity to a complex subject. Thank you both.
Joey Barnett (53:01):
Thank you. CanAm has its reputation in this industry for a reason. I’m glad to keep working with you and filing cases for your projects.
Charlie Oppenheim (53:17):
It’s a pleasure. Thank you.
Speaker Bios
Peter Calabrese, CEO, CanAm Investor Services
Peter Calabrese is the Chief Executive Officer of CanAm Investor Services, LLC, the FINRA registered broker-dealer affiliate of CanAm Enterprises, one of the most successful regional centers in the EB-5 program’s history. Under his leadership, CanAm has raised over $3 billion in private placement funds and created more than 100,000 U.S. jobs through its EB-5 projects. Prior to joining CanAm in 2015, Mr. Calabrese worked for 15 years in institutional sales and trading, focusing on equity derivatives and volatility products with firms including ICAP and WallachBeth Capital. He earned a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics from Brown University and holds FINRA Series 7, 24, 63, and 66 licenses.
Charlie Oppenheim, Director of Visa Consulting, WR Immigration
Charlie Oppenheim is WR Immigration’s Director of Visa Consulting and one of the world’s foremost authorities on U.S. visa numerical controls. For over 23 years at the U.S. Department of State, he served as Chief of the Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, where he administered the complex annual numerical limitations on immigrants and published the monthly Visa Bulletin. His decisions enabled over 9 million people to immigrate to the United States. He was regularly consulted by the White House and congressional leadership, and he hosted the State Department’s widely watched “Chat with Charlie” YouTube series.
Joey Barnett, Partner, WR Immigration
Joey Barnett is a Partner at WR Immigration and a member of the firm’s EB-5 and business immigration practices. He is licensed in Illinois, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia, and practices exclusively in immigration and nationality law. Mr. Barnett has extensive experience representing immigrant investors seeking U.S. permanent residency through USCIS-designated Regional Centers and direct investment. He serves on AILA’s EB-5 Committee and the IIUSA Editorial Board, was named a Top 5 Rising Star in EB-5 in 2019, and was listed among the Top 25 Immigration Attorneys in 2023 by EB5 Investors Magazine.
