Unreserved Visas, Retrogression Realities, and the Promise of EB-5 in 2025
In a dynamic immigration environment, staying ahead of shifting visa policies is critical—especially for investors navigating the EB-5 program. In a recent webinar hosted and moderated by Pete Calabrese, CEO of CanAm Investor Services, two of the EB-5 industry’s leading experts—Joey Barnett (Partner, WR Immigration) and Charlie Oppenheim (former Chief of Immigrant Visa Control at the U.S. Department of State)—joined the conversation to break down the latest updates from the June 2025 Visa Bulletin, analyze the causes and implications of recent retrogression, and offer forward-looking strategies for investors in 2025.
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The January Footnote and Its Fallout
Much of the conversation stemmed from a pivotal moment in early 2024—a footnote in the January Visa Bulletin. As Joey Barnett noted, “This was something that really started to bring a lot of concerns to people.” The footnote, which hinted at potential final action dates for the EB-5 reserved visa categories, led to significant speculation about whether concurrent filing opportunities might soon close.
However, Charlie Oppenheim offered clarity: “I think they were premature in posting this note in the bulletin, and that it caused unnecessary concern in the reserved community.” He explained that the concern had not materialized largely because USCIS wasn’t approving EB-5 petitions at a rate that would trigger such a restriction.
Read More: Understanding the January 2025 Visa Bulletin and What It Means for Investors
Current Status: Reserved Categories Still Current
Despite the alarm in January, the June 2025 Visa Bulletin confirmed that all reserved categories remain current. This includes visas for rural, high-unemployment, and infrastructure projects, each protected by allocations introduced under the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act.
“This remains a tremendous opportunity because all of these categories are current now,” emphasized Calabrese. “And the ability to concurrently file is a game changer.”
Learn more about CanAm’s Current EB-5 Projects here
Understanding the Retrogression for Unreserved Applicants
The webinar then shifted to a deeper discussion of retrogression in the unreserved categories, particularly affecting applicants from China and India.
“Retrogression” refers to the backward movement of priority dates, meaning that certain applicants must now wait longer before moving forward in the green card process. For Chinese-born EB-5 investors, the priority date moved from July 2016 to January 2014. Indian-born investors saw their date fall from January 2022 to May 2019.
Charlie offered a behind-the-scenes look at how this occurred: “The State Department was caught off guard. They underestimated how many unreserved visas would be used by the rest of the world. By April, it became clear that China and India had exceeded their allocation, forcing retrogression to preserve numbers for other countries.”
Yet he was quick to reassure affected investors:
“This is a temporary retrogression. I expect a rapid recovery starting in October. China could return to late 2015. India may even fully recover to early 2022.”
The Ping-Pong Effect: What to Expect in the Coming Year
A recurring theme of the conversation was the likelihood of a “ping-pong” effect—repeated back-and-forth movements of visa availability dates.
Joey explained, “We’re going to see a lot of movement on these final action dates in the next 12 to 18 months. It’s the result of per-country limits, lack of historical data under the new law, and increased demand across the globe.”
This volatility is partly due to how USCIS and the State Department project demand. Oppenheim noted a shift from his previous methodical approach: “It’s better to go slowly and advance steadily than have these ping-pong effects. Unfortunately, the newer approach has led to more erratic swings.”
Reserved Categories and the Power of Concurrent Filing
Perhaps the most significant strategic takeaway for investors is the advantage of concurrent filing while the reserved categories remain current.
“The opportunity to file for adjustment of status right now is huge,” said Barnett. “It provides work authorization, travel permission, and lets you remain in the U.S. even if your underlying visa expires.”
These benefits are not just temporary conveniences—they represent a fundamental shift in how EB-5 investments are used. Barnett continued, “You can remain in the U.S. indefinitely, even without an H-1B or F-1. We see people skipping the H-1B lottery altogether. EB-5 is becoming the backup—and often, the preferred—option.”
Why Timing Matters
The webinar closed with a strong call to action: act now, while the opportunity is still available.
“We don’t foresee final action dates for the reserved categories before January 2026,” Oppenheim predicted. “But once they’re imposed, the door for concurrent filing could close—maybe not forever, but for long enough to impact your plans.”
Calabrese added, “Every visa bulletin is a new roll of the dice. Today’s opportunity might be gone tomorrow. That’s not fear mongering—it’s the reality of a dynamic immigration system.”
Visa Availability Forecast for FY2025 and Beyond
The panel shared updated estimates for fiscal year 2025 based on projected visa availability:
- Total Employment-Based Visas: ~145,000
- EB-5 Visa Cap (7.1%): ~10,295
- Reserved Category Allocation (32% of EB-5): ~3,294
- Rural (20%): ~2,059
- High-Unemployment (10%): ~1,029
- Infrastructure (2%): ~206
- Unreserved Category (68%): ~7,001
Additionally, Barnett highlighted the “carryover” effect for unused reserved visas, which could significantly increase future availability for unreserved investors—possibly up to 10,000 visas in FY2026.
Final Advice to Investors
The conversation concluded with thoughtful, practical advice.
“Always keep your interview appointment if you’re scheduled,” Oppenheim cautioned. “Rescheduling for convenience can backfire if a retrogression occurs in the meantime.”
Barnett emphasized the importance of balance: “Yes, EB-5 is a big decision. But it’s also one that you can overthink. The window is open now. If you wait too long, you could miss your chance.”
And for those navigating multiple immigration paths, Charlie offered this strategic insight: “If you already have a petition under another employment category, you can also apply under EB-5. It gives you two chances at a visa.”
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Conclusion: The Time to Act Is Now
The EB-5 landscape is evolving quickly. Reserved categories remain current—for now—creating a rare window to file concurrently and gain crucial interim benefits. Retrogression has hit unreserved applicants in China and India, but the outlook suggests recovery and future stability. Meanwhile, investors from the rest of the world are encouraged to move quickly before broader caps are reached.
As Barnett put it, “There are times to be bold. This is one of them.”
For investors, families, and professionals evaluating the path to U.S. permanent residency, the message from this webinar is clear: know the data, understand the process—and don’t wait until opportunity turns into regret.
Dive Deeper Into EB-5:
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Why EB-5 Can Offer More Protection Than F-1: Navigating Uncertainty with Confidence
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