Every October, the release of the first visa bulletin of the new fiscal year sets the tone for investors, attorneys, and policymakers alike. This year’s bulletin, which opens Fiscal Year 2026, has drawn even greater attention because of its implications for EB-5 immigrant investors and the future of U.S. immigration policy.
In a recent discussion hosted by Pete Calabrese, CEO of CanAm Investor Services, two leading experts—Charlie Oppenheim, former Chief of Visa Control at the U.S. Department of State, and Joey Barnett, Partner at WR Immigration—analyzed the October 2025 bulletin and shared their insights. Their conversation highlighted both the opportunities and the challenges investors face, with the bulletin front and center and the newly announced Gold Card program adding to the policy backdrop.
EB-5 in the October 2025 Visa Bulletin
Unreserved Categories: China and India in Focus
The October bulletin brought both stability and movement for EB-5 investors in the unreserved categories:
- China: The final action date is being held steady for now. Oppenheim explained that the Department of State is taking a cautious approach, ensuring that it avoids overextending and then having to reverse course later in the year. Given the high demand from Chinese investors, significant forward movement is unlikely until much later in FY 2026.
- India: By contrast, India’s final action date is expected to continue advancing steadily, with Oppenheim predicting a potential full recovery to FY 2025 levels within the first six months of the new fiscal year. He noted that demand from Indian investors has already been substantially addressed, giving the Department more flexibility to move dates forward.
These movements matter because they directly impact how long investors will wait before their green cards can be issued. As Pete Calabrese emphasized, predictability is critical for investors making life-changing decisions. “Steady, incremental movement is easier to plan around than dramatic jumps or sudden retrogressions,” he said.
Reserved Categories: Still Wide Open
For investors filing under the reserved EB-5 categories—rural, high-unemployment, and infrastructure—the October bulletin brought excellent news: all categories remain current.
This means investors can take immediate advantage of concurrent filing, allowing them to apply for adjustment of status while their I-526E petitions are pending. With that comes interim benefits, including work authorization and advance parole, providing valuable security for families already in the U.S.
Oppenheim offered a cautious forecast:
- A rural category final action date could be imposed as early as spring 2026, though likely no sooner.
- High-unemployment categories are less pressured and may not face final action dates until summer 2026 or later.
For now, though, the wide-open availability underscores why set-aside categories remain such an attractive option for new EB-5 investors.
The Broader Employment-Based Context
Oppenheim also pointed out that across employment-based visa categories (EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3), the State Department advanced dates aggressively in October. While this provided relief to some applicants, it also raises the risk of future corrections or retrogressions.
This “ping-pong effect,” as he called it, has become more common in recent years. He explained that USCIS and the State Department sometimes overestimate or underestimate demand, resulting in large swings in final action dates from one bulletin to the next. For investors, this means expect the unexpected—and plan accordingly.
The Gold Card: Context for Investor Decisions
While the October bulletin was the focus of the discussion, the newly announced Gold Card program provided important context. Signed into existence by executive order on September 19, 2025, the Gold Card creates a new pathway to residency through a non-refundable donation to the U.S. Treasury.
Barnett and Oppenheim were clear: this is fundamentally different from EB-5. Unlike EB-5, which is a job-creating investment program with decades of history and bipartisan support, the Gold Card is untested, politically fragile, and could face significant implementation challenges.
Key uncertainties include:
- Whether family members will be covered by a single donation.
- Whether applications will count against EB-1 or EB-2 visa numbers, potentially worsening backlogs for Indian and Chinese applicants.
- Whether refunds will be available if applications are denied (current indications say no).
Pete Calabrese stressed that while the Gold Card may be attractive to some, EB-5 remains the predictable, legislated, and proven option. “EB-5 is in place, with clear rules and established processes,” he said. “That’s not something you can say yet about the Gold Card.”
Why Concurrent Filing Remains the Game-Changer
One of the most significant themes of the discussion was the power of concurrent filing for EB-5 investors. Because the reserved categories are current, applicants can file adjustment of status applications immediately—something Gold Card applicants may not be able to do, especially if their cases are charged against oversubscribed EB-1 or EB-2 categories.
This distinction matters. With concurrent filing, EB-5 investors gain:
- Work authorization (EAD)
- Travel flexibility (advance parole)
- Authorized stay in the U.S., protecting them from lapses in status
As Barnett explained, “That benefit is available right now for EB-5 applicants, and it’s why we’re seeing such a surge in interest. Gold Card applicants don’t have the same certainty.”
Looking Ahead: What to Expect in FY 2026
The panelists agreed on several key takeaways for the year ahead:
- China’s unreserved category will likely hold steady for months before advancing later in FY 2026.
- India’s unreserved category should advance steadily, potentially reaching a full recovery in the first half of the year.
- Reserved EB-5 categories remain current, with no final action dates expected until at least mid-2026.
- The carryover provisions unique to EB-5 will continue to boost visa availability, ensuring that unused reserved visas roll forward for broader use.
- Investors should expect continued volatility in the visa bulletin overall, as USCIS and the State Department work to balance demand with annual limits.
Conclusion: Clarity Amid Uncertainty
The October 2025 Visa Bulletin underscores both the opportunities and the complexities of the EB-5 program today. For Indian and Chinese investors, the message is mixed—stability and steady progress for some, longer waits for others. For those pursuing reserved categories, however, the bulletin reaffirms that EB-5 continues to offer immediate, practical advantages.
Against the backdrop of the Gold Card program and other political shifts, the consistency and structure of EB-5 stand out. As Pete Calabrese concluded, “This is one of the most personal and important investments people will ever make. Having a program like EB-5—with clear rules, proven results, and real protections—is invaluable.”
For investors evaluating their options, the October bulletin provides the clearest signal yet: the time to act in EB-5’s reserved categories is now.
